The big surprise of the
election has to be the Bloc Québécois resurgence, although I
am sure they probably saw it coming even if the rest of us didn't.
This certainly makes leader Yves-François Blanchet's position
secure.
The other surprise was
the late campaign resurgence of the New Democratic Party under
leader Jagmeet Singh. I am sure many New Democrats are
thinking if only they had another week of the campaign as his
popularity surge does not seem to have peaked yet. If before the
election there was uncertainty over whether they had made the right
choice he has proven himself and his leadership is certainly secure
now.
The Green Party
under Elizabeth May is a different matter altogether. This was
the election they were supposed to make a breakthrough and it proved
not to be. While Elizabeth May may be a saint to many Greens, others
have questioned her “leadership style”, to put it politely. To
many the Green Party is Elizabeth May and that may be a problem in
itself. The question for the future of the party may be is there a
Green Party beyond Elizabeth May.
As for the upstart
People’s Party of Canada (aka the “Mad Max party” or the
“I'll get you Andrew Scheer party”), it went down in flames with
even leader Maxime Bernier losing the seat he won as a
Conservative in the last election. There will be no leadership change
here as you cannot have anyone else but Max Bernier lead the Max
Bernier party. What we will likely see is brave statements about this
being their first election and they will be better organized next
time, followed by the party slowly fading away.
This was supposed to be
the election the Conservative Party under Andrew Scheer
formed government, considering Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau's
recent SNC-Lavalin and brown face scandals, to name just two. But
that was not to be, leaving Max Bernier with at least something to
celebrate. The knives were already out for Andrew Scheer during the
last week of the campaign as many Conservatives foresaw what was
coming. But it is not only leadership the Conservatives have to
change, they need to find a way to move beyond their social
conservative base that just scares away other voters.
As for the apparent
winner, Liberal Party leader, and Prime Minister, Justin
Trudeau, the big question is
going to be did he win a minority or lose a majority. To many
observers this is the election where more people voted against the
Conservatives than voted against the Liberals. It may indeed have
been an election where the Liberals won despite, not because of,
Justin Trudeau. I see it as similar to the last election Kathleen
Wynne's Liberals won in Ontario. Discontent with her leadership of
the province was only going to grow and she did not see it was time
to step down and let the Liberals re-brand under a new leader if they
hoped to win the next election. Will Justin Trudeau see this, or more
importantly, will the Liberal Party.
So
how many party leadership campaigns will we be seeing in the next few
years.
Postscript
- What if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had kept his promise and this
election was not held under the First Past The Post system but under
a system where every vote counted.
