2008-10-01

The Great Debate - My Predictions

As an almost unilingual anglophone I will not be making predictions on the French debate, but I am posting my English debate predictions now, so as not to be influenced by the media coverage of the French debate.

This has the makings of one of the country’s most historical events. It may very well be the turning point in this election that leads to real change rather than the normal superficial changes we usually see in federal elections.

Those of us who say that Jack Layton and the NDP can win this election do not say so frivolously. We know the debate will make the difference and we know that Jack needs to win the debate.

So what are my predictions.

Stephen Harper will be more of Stephen Harper, He will come across as a stronger more intense Stephen Harper. His core supporters will be delighted and see him as the winner. Those who have always opposed him will have their views reconfirmed. But most importantly, Harper’s soft support from traditional Progressive Conservative Party voters, who want to vote Conservative but have doubts about Harper and the new Conservative Party, will be placed in jeopardy.

Stéphane Dion will surprise many and come across better than expected. He will not do a terrible job in the debate, only a poor one. The Liberals Green Shift was a gutsy move but his retreat to the wimpy”we are in the middle” position will hurt him.

Gilles Duceppe will not be playing to his core Quebec francophone audience and that will show.

Elizabeth May will be a disappointment. The debate will give viewers a chance to see beyond her party’s Green label. All her efforts to get into the debate may come back to haunt her as she has to deal with the more experienced debaters.

Jack Layton will continue what he has been doing throughout the campaign and will show he has the leadership capability to be Prime Minister and that the NDP has the polices that ordinary working Canadians and their families need.

1 comment:

janfromthebruce said...

Harper has aped all of Bush's economic priorities - Poor oversight, cheap credit and a tax structure that favours corporations over the "people." He just aped Paul Martin liberal policies.
The Libs voted with Harper in last budget for huge corp taxcuts, and is on record for wanting deeper taxcuts to corps. So it will be board vs. kitchen economics and Dion tied his ship to Harper.

Expect Layton to hammer home this point - Tories want huge corporate tax cuts for corporations without any strings attached. Truth is, corporate taxes were reduced in Canada under liberals, and we've still lost hundreds of thousands of good paying jobs since start of the 2000's.

And Canada also has one of the lowest overall tax rates as a percentage of GDP in a comparison of richest nations.

So it will be board vs kitchen table.